What Can Costa Rica Expect from Tourism in September 2026?
Following the decline recorded in August, the Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) is closely monitoring several indicators that may help anticipate the behavior of international arrivals in the coming months.
According to the predictive model presented in Technical Note 14-2026, Costa Rica is expected to receive approximately 101,900 international visitors by air in September 2026, representing an estimated year-on-year change of −2.3%.
This projection should be interpreted as an estimate rather than a fixed outcome. The latest data show that some of the variables traditionally used to anticipate tourism demand are changing, while new indicators — particularly scheduled air capacity — are becoming increasingly relevant.
Scheduled air capacity is sending an important signal
One of the main additions in Technical Note 14 is a series constructed by CET using monthly international flight schedules published by the Costa Rican Tourism Board (ICT) with data from Mabrian.
The series shows a clear shift in air supply during 2026.
Between January and April, scheduled international flight frequencies to Costa Rica increased by between approximately 6% and 10% compared with the same months of 2025.
From May onward, that trend reversed.
By August, scheduled international frequencies were 27.1% lower than in August 2025. For September, the reduction reached 18.4%.
The change was initially concentrated in San José, but by August reductions were already visible at both of the country’s main international airports.
Why flight frequencies matter
Scheduled flights do not measure tourism demand directly.
They measure air supply rather than the number of passengers who will eventually arrive. Aircraft size and load factors can also compensate for changes in the number of flights.
Even so, flight schedules contain valuable information because airlines adjust routes and frequencies based on factors such as bookings, expected occupancy, route profitability, aircraft availability and seasonal demand.
For this reason, scheduled capacity can serve as an early indicator of changes that may later become visible in official arrival statistics.
For the comparable months of 2026 analyzed by CET, the year-on-year change in flight frequencies and the change in international arrivals show a correlation of 0.84.
This does not establish causation, but it indicates that the two variables have moved closely together during the period examined.
Airlines are adjusting their schedules
The 2026 schedules show several changes in routes and frequencies to Costa Rica.
Among the adjustments identified in the Technical Note are seasonal route suspensions, frequency reductions and changes in services by several international airlines operating to San José and Liberia.
Part of these changes reflects the normal seasonality of the low season. However, the year-on-year comparison indicates that the contraction in scheduled frequencies has been larger than the one observed the previous year.
For example, 602 weekly frequencies were scheduled in August 2025, compared with 439 in August 2026, a reduction of approximately 27%.
Airlines do not generally publish the specific commercial reasons behind every schedule adjustment, so the reduction cannot be attributed to a single cause.
The CET forecast model is also being reviewed
Technical Note 14 also evaluates the recent performance of CET’s predictive model.
For August, the model projected 185,985 air arrivals, while the actual result was 171,602, producing an error of 8.4%. This was the model’s first result outside its expected range after a July forecast with an error of only 0.1%.
Rather than treating this as only a forecasting error, CET is using the result to reassess the variables included in the model.
The review will examine whether the relationships between existing indicators and international arrivals have changed during 2026 and whether additional variables can improve predictive performance.
Among the indicators under evaluation are:
scheduled international flight frequencies;
future seat capacity;
searches for “flights to Costa Rica”; and
monthly U.S. outbound air travel statistics.
What should be watched in the coming months?
September and the beginning of the high season will provide important information about whether the slowdown observed since mid-year is temporary or more persistent.
Three variables will be especially useful to monitor:
International arrivals.The September result will show whether the decline recorded in August continues or begins to reverse.
Air capacity.The behavior of scheduled frequencies and seats between October and December will help determine whether airlines are restoring capacity for the high season.
The U.S. market.Because the United States remains Costa Rica’s largest source market, its outbound travel behavior and the relative performance of Costa Rica compared with other destinations will remain central to the analysis.
Technical Note 14 emphasizes that the challenge is not simply to observe whether arrivals rise or fall in a particular month, but to understand whether Costa Rica is experiencing a temporary adjustment or a broader change in its tourism growth pattern.
Read the full Technical Note
Technical Note 14-2026: Tourism — Analysis of Arrivals to Costa Rica in August 2026 presents the complete analysis of international arrivals, source markets, airport performance, scheduled air capacity and the CET forecasting model.
Read Technical Note 14-2026
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