July confirms a new pattern in tourist arrivals to Costa Rica: Liberia and Europe drive growth
- Víctor Umaña
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
Costa Rica recorded 248,070 international arrivals by air in July 2026, 2.3% more than a year earlier. Growth returned to positive territory after June's decline, but the figures reveal an important shift: Liberia continues to gain share, San José remains in negative territory, and Europe is becoming increasingly important while the United States remains virtually flat.
Download the complete Technical Note 13-2026 to review the full analysis, charts, data, and forecasting methodology developed by the Centro de Estudios del Turismo.
International arrival figures for July confirm that tourism activity in Costa Rica is experiencing two clearly differentiated phases in 2026.
Following an exceptional first quarter, when year-on-year growth ranged between 10% and 14%, the pace has slowed considerably since April. July closed with 248,070 international arrivals by air, representing a 2.3% increase compared with July 2025. Across all modes of entry, Costa Rica recorded 268,064 arrivals, also 2.3% higher than a year earlier.
Between January and July, the country accumulated 1,853,430 international air arrivals, 7.0% above the same period in 2025.
The year-to-date result remains strong, although it continues to reflect the exceptional performance recorded during the first months of the year. Since April, monthly growth has remained within a much narrower range, including a 1.2% decline in June.
July's return to positive territory suggests that June did not mark the beginning of a sustained contraction. However, the national figure conceals important differences among source markets and airports.
Europe gains momentum as the United States remains virtually flat
The United States continues to be by far Costa Rica's largest source market. It accounted for 154,301 arrivals in July, approximately 62% of all international air arrivals during the month.
Nevertheless, arrivals from the United States increased by only 0.4% year on year. This represents an improvement from the 3.0% decline recorded in Jun
e, but it also confirms that Costa Rica's largest tourism market is currently showing little growth.
Europe provided much of July's momentum.
Arrivals from European markets increased by 9.5%, reaching 45,592 travelers. Among the major European markets, France grew 10.8%, the United Kingdom 9.3%, and Germany 8.9%.
Other markets also posted positive results. Canada increased 7.4%, Mexico 6.6%, and South America 2.5%.
Central America moved in the opposite direction, with arrivals falling 11.4%, marking a second consecutive month of significant decline.
The figures therefore show that July's growth was not primarily generated by the United States, as might traditionally be expected, but by stronger performance from European markets and several smaller source markets.
Liberia grows 12.6% while San José records its fourth consecutive decline
The most significant divergence in July becomes evident when Costa Rica's two main international airports are compared.
Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) received 158,076 tourists, representing a 2.7% year-on-year decline. July therefore became the fourth consecutive month of negative growth at SJO.
Daniel Oduber Quirós International Airport in Liberia (LIR), in contrast, received 89,947 tourists, 12.6% more than in July 2025.
Liberia accounted for approximately 36% of all international air arrivals during the month.
The divergence is also evident in year-to-date figures. Between January and July, international arrivals through Liberia increased 13.3%, compared with growth of only 3.6% through San José.
Since April, essentially all of Costa Rica's aggregate growth in international air arrivals has been associated with Guanacaste.
CET's Technical Note 13-2026 points to factors related to Guanacaste's connectivity and tourism product — including resorts, sun-and-beach travel, high-value segments, and direct international air services from selected markets — as contributing to this performance.
At the same time, the evolution of arrivals through San José raises relevant questions regarding national tourism promotion, domestic connectivity between destinations, and the behavior of travelers using the country's main international gateway.
Exchange-rate appreciation and the evolution of average length of stay also remain important variables to monitor, as highlighted in previous CET technical notes.
CET's forecasting model faces its first real-time test
Technical Note 13 also provides an important opportunity to evaluate CET's analytical work: the first real-time comparison between its tourist-arrival forecasting model and the subsequently released official data.
CET had projected 247,750 international air arrivals for July.
The official figure was 248,070.
The difference was just 320 travelers, equivalent to an error of approximately 0.1%.
The official result also fell within the model's estimated probable range of 233,100 to 268,100 arrivals.
Although July's result was unusually accurate, CET cautions against using a single forecast to assess the model's predictive capacity. Its historical performance provides a more realistic benchmark, with an average forecasting error of approximately 5%.
The model combines two components: recent arrival trends and signals derived from Google searches associated with travel to Costa Rica.
What could happen in August and September?
After incorporating July's official figures and updating Google search data through August 17, CET revised its outlook for the following two months.
For August 2026, the model projects 185,985 international air arrivals, compared with 182,342 in August 2025. This would represent growth of approximately 2.0%.
The model's probable range is between 174,900 and 201,700 arrivals.
For September 2026, traditionally the lowest point of Costa Rica's low season, CET projects 107,125 arrivals, approximately 2.8% above September 2025. The probable range is between 101,500 and 116,900 arrivals.
The August forecast changed very little from the projection published one month earlier — from 185,560 to 185,985 arrivals — providing an indication of model stability.
Overall, the forecasts do not suggest either a significant acceleration or further deterioration during the low season. Instead, they point toward a continuation of the moderate growth observed in recent months.
Positive growth, but with a different engine
July's figures reveal a change that goes beyond Costa Rica's overall growth rate.
The country continues to receive more international travelers than in 2025, but the current sources of growth differ significantly from those observed at the beginning of the year.
Europe is showing stronger momentum. The United States remains virtually flat. Liberia continues to post double-digit growth, while San José has now recorded four consecutive months of decline.
Monitoring these developments will be particularly important over the coming months.
Key variables include the recovery of the U.S. market, the performance of arrivals through Juan Santamaría International Airport, and Costa Rica's ability to capitalize on the dynamism of European markets and Liberia's connectivity during the year-end travel season.
Read the complete analysis
Technical Note 13-2026, “Tourism: Analysis of Arrivals to Costa Rica in July 2026,” examines these trends in greater detail and includes market-level data, airport performance, charts, forecast methodology, probability ranges, and the main conclusions of the analysis.
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