Costa Rica Air Connectivity in 2026: Flight Cuts and Growth in Guanacaste — NT18
Scheduled air capacity is weakening at San José while Liberia continues to grow. CET’s latest technical note examines the implications for tourism, visitor spending and destination competitiveness.
Based on Technical Note 18-2026 by Víctor Umaña, Executive Director of the Center for Tourism Studies (CET).
Costa Rica’s air connectivity figures reveal a widening gap between its two international airports. Although scheduled seats increased slightly during January–July 2026, capacity fell below the previous year’s levels every month from April onward. October flight schedules point to a further adjustment, concentrated at Juan Santamaría International Airport.
In Technical Note 18-2026, “Costa Rica: Scheduled Air Capacity in 2026,” Víctor Umaña examines these changes using Costa Rican Tourism Board (ICT) information based on Mabrian data. His analysis considers airline costs, changes in source markets and the possibility of a broader transformation in Costa Rica’s tourism activity.
This article summarizes the complete note. Download the full report for the five charts, detailed market comparisons, assumptions and methodological qualifications behind the findings.
Scheduled seats grow just 0.7% as momentum weakens
Between January and July 2026, 3,352,513 seats were scheduled to Costa Rica, an increase of only 0.7% over the same period in 2025, when capacity had grown by 7.7%.
The modest cumulative increase masks a clear change during the year. Monthly year-on-year growth ranged from 6.7% to 8.2% in the first quarter, but turned negative in April. By July, scheduled capacity was 8.6% below July 2025.
These figures measure scheduled airline seats. They should not be interpreted as tourist arrivals: seats may remain empty or be occupied by returning residents and other travelers.
San José loses capacity while Liberia gains
The national total combines contrasting airport trends:
Airport | Scheduled seats, January–July 2026 | Change from January–July 2025 |
Juan Santamaría, San José (SJO) | 2,511,429 | −2.4% |
Daniel Oduber, Liberia (LIR) | 841,084 | +11.6% |
Costa Rica total | 3,352,513 | +0.7% |
At SJO, monthly capacity moved from 6.3% growth in March to a 12.3% decline in July. Liberia, the principal international gateway to Guanacaste, recorded growth every month.
For tourism businesses, the distinction matters. A small national increase can coexist with deteriorating connectivity for destinations that depend on San José as their entry point.
Which source markets are growing?
The United States, Canada and Europe added approximately 136,500 seats during January–July. Mexico, Central America, South America and the Caribbean lost approximately 112,400 seats.
Growth from North America was concentrated in Liberia. US seat capacity increased by 8.6% to LIR, compared with 0.4% to SJO. Canadian capacity rose by 28.9% to LIR and 3.7% to SJO.
European capacity increased by 17.0% overall, arriving almost entirely through San José. Colombia and Guatemala recorded declines of 15.0% and 18.6%, respectively.
The US market deserves particular attention because it represents almost half of scheduled seats. Its monthly growth shifted from 12.4% in March to −8.6% in July. Continued growth from Europe and Canada did not offset that July adjustment.
October schedules show 60 fewer weekly flights
For the third week of October 2026, CET estimates 390 scheduled weekly flights, compared with 450 a year earlier: a reduction of 13.3%.
San José lost 70 weekly flights, while Liberia gained 10. Volaris, Avianca, Spirit and JetBlue account for almost the entire net reduction identified in the note.
This comparison is a snapshot of a specific week. It excludes one-off flights and routes beginning later in the month. The report also identifies a limitation: the ICT schedule did not include Southwest’s announced Las Vegas–San José service. If operating, that route would moderate SJO’s estimated decline.
What could fewer flights mean for tourism earnings?
The note estimates that 60 fewer weekly flights represent approximately 10,700 fewer seats per week.
Using the 2025 relationship between estimated air arrivals and scheduled seats—approximately one tourist per two seats—and a more conservative range for the affected routes, Umaña presents a conditional scenario: if the reduction persisted from October through December, Costa Rica could forgo between 35,000 and 70,000 tourists.
Multiplying that range by ICT’s average spending figure of US$1,848 per tourist produces approximately US$65 million–US$129 million in forgone foreign exchange earnings.
This is a scenario estimate, rather than an observed loss or a confirmed forecast. Its assumptions and qualifications are explained in the full report.
Why are airlines reducing capacity?
The analysis groups the pressures into four areas.
Fuel costs. The note reviews reports of higher fuel expenses and airline decisions to remove less profitable services.
Changes in the low-cost model. Airline exits, suspended routes and network restructuring reduce available capacity and may change competition and fares.
Taxes, fees and fleet constraints. The report discusses Volaris’s explanation for its route suspensions, including ticket taxes and fees, fleet allocation and engine inspections.
Demand and profitability. Drawing on airline and travel-agency reporting, the note argues that costs and network decisions explain much of the adjustment, even where tourism routes remain profitable. It identifies the possible extension of further cuts into December and early 2027 as a risk.
Is Costa Rica’s tourism geography changing?
Beyond individual airline decisions, Umaña examines CET’s hypothesis that high destination costs, an appreciated colón, road infrastructure deficiencies and insecurity may be contributing to a structural transformation.
The note identifies four developments:
Growth concentrated in Guanacaste. Liberia’s expanding capacity coincides with a greater share of international air arrivals and direct access to North Pacific beach destinations.
Shorter stays. The average stay decreased from 12.6 nights in 2019 to 10.3 nights in 2025, according to the figures reviewed in the note.
More seats do not necessarily mean more tourists. Scheduled capacity increased from approximately 4.1 million seats in 2019 to 5.48 million in 2025, while tourist arrivals remained below 2019 levels. Travel by Costa Rican residents absorbs part of that capacity.
Higher dollar spending does not necessarily mean greater real value. Average tourist spending rose from US$1,601.8 in 2024 to US$1,848 in 2025. However, colón appreciation can increase the dollar cost of locally priced services without an equivalent increase in consumption. Distinguishing that effect from a shift toward luxury tourism requires spending measures in constant colones.
The note explicitly distinguishes correlation from causation. These developments are consistent with CET’s hypothesis, but do not establish that competitiveness weaknesses caused the airline cuts.
Why this matters beyond the airports
If capacity continues shifting toward Liberia, destinations dependent on SJO—including the Central Valley, Caribbean, northern region, and Central and South Pacific—could lose participation in international tourism.
The practical implication is to examine connectivity by airport, source market and destination, alongside arrivals, length of stay and real visitor spending. National totals alone can conceal significant regional differences.
Download Technical Note 18-2026
Explore the evidence behind the changing pattern of flights to Costa Rica. The full report includes five charts, a detailed table by source market and airport, the potential tourism earnings scenario, and the methodological notes needed to interpret the results.
Download the full report in English & Spanish: Costa Rica — Scheduled Air Capacity in 2026 (NT18).
Source for the figures and analysis summarized above: CET Technical Note 18-2026, by Víctor Umaña, using ICT information based on Mabrian data and the additional sources identified in the report.
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