Costa Rica Tourism Arrivals: Growth Slows as Airport and Market Trends Diverge TN-17

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International tourist arrivals increased 4.8% through September 2026, but almost all of that growth occurred in the first quarter. CET’s Technical Note 17-2026 examines the recent slowdown, the contrasting performance of Costa Rica’s main airports, the contribution of source markets and three scenarios for the end of the year.

Costa Rica received 2,310,320 international tourists between January and September 2026, an increase of 106,522 compared with the same period in 2025. This was the strongest January–September result since 2019.

The cumulative figure, however, does not fully describe current conditions. While arrivals grew strongly at the beginning of the year, they were virtually unchanged between April and September, and the third quarter ended below its 2025 level.

Prepared by Víctor Umaña, Executive Director of the Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET), Technical Note 17-2026: Costa Rica—International Arrivals through September 2026 examines these developments using Costa Rican Tourism Board (ICT) statistics based on records from the General Directorate of Migration and Foreign Affairs (DGME).

Download Technical Note 17-2026 for the complete analysis, five charts, four statistical tables and methodological details.

September: A Small Month with a Relevant Warning Signal

Costa Rica recorded 118,888 international tourist arrivals in September, down 2.4% from 121,815 in September 2025. This was the lowest September total since 2021 and the third monthly decline in the last four months.

September typically accounts for around 4% of annual arrivals, so its direct contribution to the full-year result is limited. Its significance lies in the pattern it reinforces: since April, modest increases have alternated with declines, and August and September closed the third quarter with two consecutive decreases.

Air arrivals fell 1.7%, to 102,474, while land arrivals declined 5.0%, to 16,273.

Compared with September 2019, total arrivals remained 25.8% lower. This contrasts with January, February and March, which have already exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. Costa Rica’s recovery has therefore been stronger during the high season than during the low season.

January–September: Strong Early Growth Masks Recent Stagnation

The year-to-date increase of 4.8% combines two very different periods.

In the first quarter, arrivals reached 1,033,777, up 11.3% from 2025. Between April and September, they totaled 1,276,543, just 1,480 more visitors than a year earlier—an increase of only 0.1%.

The third quarter, covering July through September, recorded 576,724 arrivals, a 1.2% decline. This was the first quarterly decrease since the second quarter of 2025.

Period	International arrivals in 2026	Change from 2025
January–March	1,033,777	+11.3%
April–September	1,276,543	+0.1%
July–September	576,724	−1.2%
January–September	2,310,320	+4.8%

Source: CET Technical Note 17-2026, using ICT statistics based on DGME data. All entry routes. Periods overlap and should not be added together.

The timing of Easter partly influenced the first-quarter result. In 2026, Easter week extended from March 30 to April 5, whereas in 2025 it fell entirely in April. Combining March and April to reduce this calendar effect still produces solid growth of 7.9%.

The distinction matters when interpreting the outlook: the cumulative result reflects the strong high season at the beginning of the year, while the more recent trajectory shows the conditions under which Costa Rica approaches the year-end high season.

Two Airports, Two Different Tourism Trends

National totals also conceal a substantial divergence between Costa Rica’s two main international airports.

Juan Santamaría: Six Consecutive Monthly Declines

Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) recorded 1,357,099 arrivals through September, an increase of 2.1%. However, all of that growth came from the first quarter, when arrivals rose 10.5%.

Since April, SJO has declined every month:

April and May: −1.4% in each month.
June: −5.5%.
July: −2.7%.
August: −6.1%.
September: −5.4%.

Across April–September, SJO received 3.6% fewer tourists than in the same period of 2025. Its January–September total also remained 1.3% below 2019.

Guanacaste: Record Arrivals and Sustained Growth

Daniel Oduber International Airport in Liberia (LIR), known as Guanacaste Airport, recorded 769,716 arrivals, an increase of 11.9%. This was its highest January–September total on record and stood 67% above 2019.

LIR posted double-digit growth in eight of the nine months, including 11.8% in September. August was the only month in decline.

Between April and September, while SJO was contracting, LIR grew 7.7%. Guanacaste Airport now accounts for approximately 36% of air arrivals, compared with 25% in 2019.

What Explains the Divergence?

North American arrivals show the contrast clearly. U.S. arrivals through SJO fell 2.3% over January–September, while those through LIR increased 8.5%. Canadian arrivals grew at both airports, but considerably faster through LIR (30.8%) than through SJO (13.0%).

The note interprets this pattern as an increasing concentration of North American arrivals through Guanacaste’s beach gateway. It also identifies implications for tourism businesses and destinations that depend on the Central Valley as their main point of entry, including the capital, the Central and South Pacific, the Caribbean and the Northern Region.

These airport statistics describe entry patterns; they do not directly measure visitors’ subsequent travel within Costa Rica.

Source Markets: Canada Contributes Disproportionately to Growth

United States: The Largest Market Has Lost Momentum

The United States generated 1,288,001 arrivals, representing 55.7% of the total and an increase of 2.4%.

Its growth was concentrated in the first quarter. Since April, the market has been broadly flat, with declines in June, August and September. The August decrease was particularly pronounced at 13.7%, followed by a 3.3% decline in September.

Given its weight, the U.S. market remains central to Costa Rica’s overall performance.

Canada: The Main Contributor to Additional Arrivals

Canada recorded 239,065 arrivals, up 23.9%, contributing approximately 46,000 additional tourists. That exceeded the approximately 30,000 additional arrivals from the United States, despite Canada’s much smaller market size.

Canada accounted for approximately 43% of the total year-to-date increase, compared with 28% from the United States and 24% from Europe. These contributions compare each market’s increase with the national increase of 106,522 arrivals.

The note observes that Canadian growth coincides with reduced Canadian travel to the United States since 2025. It presents this as a possible shift benefiting Costa Rica, rather than a demonstrated causal relationship.

Europe and Other Regions

Europe recorded 375,245 arrivals, an increase of 7.3%, and represented 16.2% of total arrivals. Growth included Italy (15.0%), the Netherlands (13.3%), Spain (9.7%), Germany (5.4%) and France (4.0%). The United Kingdom was nearly unchanged at 0.4%.

Despite the positive cumulative result, European arrivals in September were essentially flat (−0.1%).

Mexico grew 7.2%, reaching 77,032 arrivals. South America increased 3.0%, supported by Colombia and Argentina, while Asia and the Pacific grew 5.9%.

Central America declined 4.3%, to 160,842 arrivals, with decreases in Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras.

The 2026 Outlook: Above Three Million, Below the 2019 Record

CET presents three year-end scenarios based on alternative outcomes for October–December. Each applies a different rate of change to the 740,193 arrivals recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, then adds the observed January–September 2026 total.

Fourth-quarter scenario	Projected 2026 arrivals	Change from 2025
Arrivals decline 1.2%, matching the third quarter	3,041,500	+3.3%
Arrivals remain unchanged from 2025	3,050,500	+3.6%
Arrivals grow 4.8%, matching year-to-date growth	3,086,000	+4.8%

Source: CET Technical Note 17-2026. Projected totals are rounded to the nearest hundred. These are illustrative scenarios, not an econometric forecast.

Under all three scenarios, Costa Rica would exceed three million international tourists for the first time since 2019, while remaining below that year’s record of 3,139,008.

CET considers the first two scenarios more likely, given the recent performance of SJO and the U.S. market. Its central scenario is approximately 3.05 million arrivals, up 3.6% from 2025 and 2.8% below 2019.

The note identifies three principal risks: U.S. consumer trends, airline seat capacity to SJO, and the effect of the strong Costa Rican colón on destination price competitiveness. The exchange-rate issue is examined further in CET’s Technical Note 16-2026.

What These Findings Mean for Tourism Planning

The analysis highlights the importance of looking beyond a single national growth rate. Costa Rica’s cumulative increase coexists with recent stagnation, a third-quarter decline, contrasting airport performance and different source-market trends.

For tourism planning, this supports closer monitoring of recent monthly demand, the airport gateways relevant to each destination, and the markets on which individual businesses depend. A positive national total does not necessarily describe conditions across every destination or business.

The year-end high season will determine whether the recent slowdown persists or gives way to renewed growth.

About the Data

This article summarizes CET Technical Note 17-2026, published on October 16, 2026, by Víctor Umaña.

The analysis uses ICT international tourist arrival statistics based on DGME administrative records through September 2026. The indicator counts foreign visitors who stay overnight and excludes Costa Rican nationals, foreign residents, cruise passengers, crews, land transport operators and temporary work permits.

Unless otherwise stated, percentage changes compare the same period in 2026 and 2025. Airport shares cited in the airport analysis use total air arrivals as their denominator.