Costa Rica Begins 2026 with a Rebound in International Arrivals, but the Broader Context Still Calls for Caution

Víctor Umaña
Mar 16
4 min read

An Encouraging Start for Tourism Activity

Costa Rica began 2026 with a positive sign in international arrival trends. During January and February, the country welcomed 653,959 international travelers, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and making this the strongest first two-month period since the pandemic.

This is an important result, not only because of the cumulative volume, but also because it confirms a recovery that is regaining momentum after a recent period marked by mixed signals. In an international environment still sensitive to economic, exchange-rate, and geopolitical factors, this performance provides an encouraging foundation for the country’s tourism activity.

February Sends an Especially Positive Signal

February was particularly favorable. With 331,967 international arrivals, the country posted a 13.0% increase compared to February 2025. Beyond the headline number, the daily average offers an even clearer reading: February 2026 stands as the best February in the recent series in terms of arrivals per day.

That detail matters. Monthly data can sometimes be influenced by the number of days in a month or by calendar effects. However, when looking at daily performance, the trend appears more solid and suggests that there is real momentum in international demand for Costa Rica at the start of the year.

Guanacaste Stands Out Again as a Strategic Gateway

One of the most relevant findings of the technical note is the performance of Daniel Oduber Airport in Liberia. During the first two months of the year, this terminal recorded 114,420 international arrivals, with growth of 18.9%, well above the pace observed at Juan Santamaría Airport.

This result confirms Guanacaste’s consolidation as an increasingly strong entry point for international tourism, especially in segments associated with sun and beach, nature, wellness, and higher-spending travel experiences. It also reinforces the importance of regional air connectivity and the positioning of Northern Pacific destinations within the national tourism offering.

Source Markets Show Opportunity, but Progress Is Uneven

The rebound is not explained by a single market. Canada stands out as one of the main drivers of recent growth, showing robust performance among the highest-volume source markets. Positive signs are also visible in several European countries, along with meaningful gains from some South American markets.

This diversification is good news. It partially reduces dependence on a small number of origins and creates room for a more balanced demand structure. Still, the picture is not uniform. Some markets continue to recover more slowly, which makes it necessary to watch closely the evolution of factors such as the exchange rate, the relative cost of the destination, and available connectivity.

Central America Remains a Warning Sign

Not all parts of the map show positive results. Central America was the only region to post a negative variation in February, driven mainly by a decline in land arrivals from neighboring countries.

This pattern deserves attention because it reminds us that not all tourism flows respond in the same way. While long-haul markets may show recovery through air travel, regional and overland movements respond to different dynamics, often linked to costs, border mobility, economic conditions, or shifts in short-stay travel patterns.

Seasonality Remains Strong and Continues to Shape the Year

The data also confirm that the destination’s seasonality remains very clear. The first quarter continues to concentrate the highest volumes of the year, followed by a gradual slowdown toward the lower-demand months and a recovery toward year-end.

In that sense, the strong performance at the beginning of 2026 is also connected to an important earlier signal: December 2025 was the best December in the recent series. This suggests that the momentum now being observed is not emerging in isolation, but rather as part of a broader trajectory that has been showing strength during peak demand periods.

A Recovery That Should Be Read with Caution

From CET’s perspective, the results of the first two months of the year are encouraging and should be recognized as such. Costa Rica is showing recovery capacity, strength in key markets, and positive performance in strategic entry nodes such as Liberia.

Still, simplistic readings should be avoided. A statistical rebound alone does not resolve the structural challenges facing tourism activity. Important issues remain in areas such as competitiveness, infrastructure, security, connectivity, market diversification, and the destination’s operating conditions.

That is precisely why the value of these numbers lies not only in celebrating a positive result, but in understanding what is driving this growth, how sustainable it may be over time, and which risks could limit its consolidation.

What Comes Next Will Be Decisive

The coming months will be critical in determining whether this performance reflects a firmer consolidation or merely a partial rebound within a still fragile environment. The evolution of international demand, the exchange-rate context, air service availability, and the country’s ability to sustain its value proposition will all be determining factors.

For now, the start of 2026 offers a positive sign. But it also leaves a clear task ahead: to read the data seriously, avoid premature triumphalism, and strengthen the conditions needed to turn this rebound into a more stable and sustainable recovery.