The electric power system is entering a pressure zone, and tourism should take note.

The Center for Tourism Studies presents Technical Note 07-2026, an analysis of the recent evolution of Costa Rica’s electric power system, with emphasis on demand, generation by source, the growing use of thermal generation and the implications for the country’s competitiveness and tourism activity.

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The report analyzes data from the National Electric System for 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The evidence shows that Costa Rica is entering a new stage of pressure on its electric power system: demand is growing, peak demand is increasing and dispatchable renewable supply does not appear to be expanding at the same pace.

In 2025, national electricity demand reached 12,995 GWh, 1.6% higher than in 2024. However, in the first quarter of 2026, growth accelerated to 3.35% year-over-year, with accumulated demand reaching 3,297 GWh. Peak demand reached 1,996 MW on March 18, 2026, representing a 4.5% increase compared with the first quarter of 2025.

One of the most relevant findings is the changing role of thermal generation. In 2025, Costa Rica significantly reduced the use of thermal power generation compared with 2024, supported by hydrological recovery. However, in just the first quarter of 2026, thermal generation accumulated 128.9 GWh, equivalent to 71% of all electricity generated from this source during 2025.

This behavior suggests that thermal generation may be moving beyond its traditional role as an exceptional backup during drought periods and becoming a system management tool in a context of greater climate uncertainty, the need to preserve reservoirs and rising electricity demand.

The note also identifies a recomposition of the electricity matrix. Hydropower’s share declined from 68.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to 64.6% in the same period of 2026. At the same time, thermal generation increased from 3.0% to 4.0%, and the system shifted from net exports of 131.4 GWh in Q1 2025 to net imports of 35.8 GWh in Q1 2026.

This shift introduces a double vulnerability: climate-related and geopolitical. Dependence on hydropower exposes the system to more variable rainfall patterns, while greater use of thermal generation increases exposure to international oil prices, hydrocarbon imports and external logistical or geopolitical tensions.

For tourism activity, this issue is especially sensitive. Electricity is a cross-cutting input for lodging, air conditioning, refrigeration, transportation, gastronomy, commerce and related services. A sustained increase in electricity and fuel costs may put pressure on business operating margins, especially in coastal and rural regions where competitiveness depends on reasonable costs, service quality and operational stability.

Electric security can no longer be treated as a guaranteed attribute of the Costa Rican model. It is becoming a critical determinant of productive development policy, investment attraction, territorial competitiveness and the future of tourism activity.

Through this technical note, CET seeks to contribute evidence to a more rigorous national conversation on energy, competitiveness and tourism development. Costa Rica must anticipate risks, accelerate the expansion of firm renewable supply and strengthen electric system planning as an integral part of its development strategy.