Costa Rica Expects Moderate Tourism Growth in July and August 2026
- Víctor Umaña
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Updated: 1 day ago
The Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) has developed a model to estimate, one and two months in advance, the number of international tourists expected to arrive in Costa Rica by air.
The tool combines two main signals: the recent trend in arrivals and the behavior of Google searches conducted from the United States, a market that accounts for approximately 60% of the country’s air arrivals.
According to Technical Note 11-2026, the model forecasts approximately 247,750 tourists in July 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 2.2%, and 185,560 tourists in August, an increase of 1.8% compared with the same month in 2025.
An Early Signal for Decision-Making
Official arrival figures are released several weeks after the end of each month. The CET’s new model seeks to reduce this information gap and provide advance data for businesses, organizations and public authorities connected to the tourism activity.
The analysis is based on a simple premise: before purchasing a ticket, travelers search for destinations, lodging, prices and experiences. These searches generate a public and measurable signal that may anticipate changes in demand.
Each month, the CET monitors five search terms related to travel to Costa Rica from the United States and evaluates how their movements are subsequently reflected in international arrivals.
Low Growth and Weaker Momentum
The forecasts for July and August indicate positive but limited growth. The expected pace is close to 2% year over year and confirms a slowdown compared with the performance recorded during the first months of 2026.
The results do not suggest a significant change in the recent trend. Instead, they indicate that the tourism activity is likely to continue showing limited momentum in the short term.
Each estimate includes a probable range to reflect the uncertainty inherent in any forecast. For July, the model estimates between 233,100 and 268,100 tourists, while the August range is between 175,500 and 203,200 tourists.
A Model Tested Against Historical Results
Before publication, the model was validated through a 30-month retrospective test. In each case, the forecast was produced using only the information that would have been available at that point in time and was later compared with the actual figure.
The average error was 4.7% for one-month forecasts and 5.6% for two-month forecasts. These results outperformed a simple benchmark that assumes the same number of tourists as in the previous year.
The model can anticipate the normal behavior of arrivals, but it cannot predict unexpected events such as health crises, security incidents or airport closures.
Toward Longer-Range Forecasts
The CET is working to incorporate additional variables, including advance lodging bookings and the number of scheduled airline seats to Costa Rica.
These data could improve the model’s accuracy and extend the forecasting horizon beyond two months. Part of this information is already available through specialized platforms used by the Costa Rican Tourism Board.
The Technical Note highlights the value of sharing these data regularly in order to strengthen tourism planning and improve access to timely information.
A Monthly Publication for the Tourism Activity
The CET will publish this forecast every month as a public good for lodging providers, tour operators, airlines, organizations and authorities.
The information will provide an early signal for planning staffing, inventories, promotion, operating capacity and other decisions related to expected demand.
Technical Note 11-2026, “Costa Rica: How Many Tourists Will Arrive in the Next Two Months?”, includes a description of the model, its validation results, forecast ranges and the main opportunities for future improvement.
About CET and This Publication
The Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) is an independent, nonprofit think tank dedicated to the technical analysis of tourism in Costa Rica. Its purpose is to strengthen the competitiveness and sustainability of tourism by openly disseminating data and rigorous analysis that support evidence-based decision-making.
The analyses are based on reliable sources, which are cited in each document. Projections reflect the best information available as of the publication date and are subject to the inherent uncertainty of any forward-looking exercise; they do not constitute commercial or investment advice. The conclusions are the sole responsibility of CET.
Centro de Estudios del Turismo · www.cet-cr.org
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