In May 2026, Tourism Grows Moderately While Costa Rica Loses the World Cup Spotlight Effect

CET Technical Note NT09-2026 analyzes international tourist arrivals in May 2026, the record-breaking January–May cumulative result, the growth of Guanacaste and Canada, and the tourism-related cost of Costa Rica’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

International arrivals in May 2026

In May 2026, Costa Rica received 213,089 tourists through all ports of entry, 3.5% more than in May 2025. Air arrivals reached 195,571 visitors, representing year-over-year growth of 3.0%. Although the result is positive, May 2026 did not surpass the series record set in May 2024, when arrivals reached 216,702.

The month’s growth was moderate and was mainly explained by two factors: the dynamism of the Canadian market and the performance of Guanacaste International Airport. By contrast, the United States, Costa Rica’s main source market, remained practically stable, with year-over-year growth of only 0.4%.

In the January–May 2026 period, Costa Rica received 1,502,896 tourists, 8.3% more than in the same period of 2025. This marks a historical high for the first five months of the year and, for the first time, surpasses the level recorded in 2019, before the pandemic. However, the figure should be read with caution: most of the momentum was concentrated in the first months of the year, while April and May showed a more moderate trend.

From a seasonal perspective, May remains a transition month. It stands below the high-season peak, concentrated between December and March, and comes before the June–July rebound associated with family travel from the Northern Hemisphere. In terms of volume, May remains in the lower third of the year, although the 2026 result is above the month’s recent historical average.

The market composition confirms Costa Rica’s strong concentration in North America, which accounted for 72% of May arrivals. The United States remains, by a wide margin, the country’s main source market, with 130,491 tourists, equivalent to just over 6 out of every 10 international arrivals during the month. Canada was the most dynamic market, growing by 24.8% in May and 25.6% in the January–May cumulative period.

Europe also showed a relevant rebound in May, with regional growth of 15.0%, driven by markets such as Germany, Italy, and Israel. This increase should be interpreted in context, as May is part of the low season for several European markets, meaning that percentage growth is calculated over relatively smaller volumes.

Airport performance provides an important territorial reading of tourism activity. In May, Guanacaste International Airport received 69,430 tourists, a 12.0% increase compared with the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, Juan Santamaría International Airport recorded 126,053 arrivals, a decline of 1.4%. As a result, Guanacaste now accounts for 35.5% of air arrivals in the month, compared with approximately 19% in 2019.

This trend confirms Guanacaste’s growing weight in Costa Rica’s international air connectivity. For tourism planning, the data points to the need to monitor more closely the territorial distribution of demand, airport infrastructure, domestic connectivity, pressure on local services, and the capacity of destinations to absorb growth without affecting the quality of the visitor experience or the sustainability of the tourism model.

The note also includes a special box on the tourism cost of Costa Rica’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Beyond the sporting result, the analysis highlights the loss of the so-called “spotlight effect,” meaning the international exposure that a World Cup provides to participating countries. According to the model cited in the note, this absence could represent around 30,000 fewer tourists and nearly USD 40 million in tourism value added that would not materialize.

In summary, May 2026 shows a positive recovery, but not a broad-based takeoff. The January–May cumulative result reached a historical high, although recent growth appears concentrated in specific markets, months, and points of entry. Canada, Guanacaste, and some European markets explain much of the progress, while other markets and airports show signs of stability or stagnation.

CET_NT09-2026.pdf

Download PDF • 899KB

Through this monitoring, CET seeks to contribute evidence to a more rigorous discussion on competitiveness, connectivity, market diversification, and tourism planning. International arrival figures must be read beyond the aggregate number: it is essential to understand which markets are growing, where visitors are entering the country, when they are traveling, and what these dynamics mean for Costa Rica’s tourism destinations.