Following the decline recorded in August, the Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) is closely monitoring several indicators that may help anticipate the behavior of international arrivals in the coming months. According to the predictive model presented in Technical Note 14-2026, Costa Rica is expected to receive approximately 101,900 international visitors by air in September 2026, representing an estimated year-on-year change of −2.3%. This projection should be interpreted as an estimate rather than a fixed outcome. The latest data show that some of the variables traditionally used to anticipate tourism demand are changing, while new indicators — particularly scheduled air capacity — are becoming increasingly relevant. Scheduled air capacity is sending an important signal One of the main additions in Technical Note 14 is a series constructed by CET using monthly international flight schedules published by the Costa Rican Tourism Board (ICT) with data from Mabrian. The series shows a clear shift in air supply during 2026. Between January and April, scheduled international flight frequencies to Costa Rica increased by between approximately 6% and 10% compared with the same months of 2025. From May onward, that trend reversed. By August, scheduled international frequencies were 27.1% lower than in August 2025. For September, the reduction reached 18.4%. The change was initially concentrated in San José, but by August reductions were already visible at both of the country’s main international airports. Why flight frequencies matter Scheduled flights do not measure tourism demand directly. They measure air supply rather than the number of passengers who will eventually arrive. Aircraft size and load factors can also compensate for changes in the number of flights. Even so, flight schedules contain valuable information because airlines adjust routes and frequencies based on factors such as bookings, expected occupancy, route profitability, aircraft availability and seasonal demand. For this reason, scheduled capacity can serve as an early indicator of changes that may later become visible in official arrival statistics. For the comparable months of 2026 analyzed by CET, the year-on-year change in flight frequencies and the change in international arrivals show a correlation of 0.84. This does not establish causation, but it indicates that the two variables have moved closely together during the period examined. Airlines are adjusting their schedules The 2026 schedules show several changes in routes and frequencies to Costa Rica. Among the adjustments identified in the Technical Note are seasonal route suspensions, frequency reductions and changes in services by several international airlines operating to San José and Liberia. Part of these changes reflects the normal seasonality of the low season. However, the year-on-year comparison indicates that the contraction in scheduled frequencies has been larger than the one observed the previous year. For example, 602 weekly frequencies were scheduled in August 2025, compared with 439 in August 2026, a reduction of approximately 27%. Airlines do not generally publish the specific commercial reasons behind every schedule adjustment, so the reduction cannot be attributed to a single cause. The CET forecast model is also being reviewed Technical Note 14 also evaluates the recent performance of CET’s predictive model. For August, the model projected 185,985 air arrivals, while the actual result was 171,602, producing an error of 8.4%. This was the model’s first result outside its expected range after a July forecast with an error of only 0.1%. Rather than treating this as only a forecasting error, CET is using the result to reassess the variables included in the model. The review will examine whether the relationships between existing indicators and international arrivals have changed during 2026 and whether additional variables can improve predictive performance. Among the indicators under evaluation are: scheduled international flight frequencies; future seat capacity; searches for “flights to Costa Rica”; and monthly U.S. outbound air travel statistics. What should be watched in the coming months? September and the beginning of the high season will provide important information about whether the slowdown observed since mid-year is temporary or more persistent. Three variables will be especially useful to monitor: International arrivals.The September result will show whether the decline recorded in August continues or begins to reverse. Air capacity.The behavior of scheduled frequencies and seats between October and December will help determine whether airlines are restoring capacity for the high season. The U.S. market.Because the United States remains Costa Rica’s largest source market, its outbound travel behavior and the relative performance of Costa Rica compared with other destinations will remain central to the analysis. Technical Note 14 emphasizes that the challenge is not simply to observe whether arrivals rise or fall in a particular month, but to understand whether Costa Rica is experiencing a temporary adjustment or a broader change in its tourism growth pattern. Read the full Technical Note Technical Note 14-2026: Tourism — Analysis of Arrivals to Costa Rica in August 2026 presents the complete analysis of international arrivals, source markets, airport performance, scheduled air capacity and the CET forecasting model. Read Technical Note 14-2026

Costa Rica recorded its first generalized decline in international arrivals of 2026 in August, marking a change from the growth pattern seen during the first months of the year. According to the latest analysis by the Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET), 171,602 international visitors arrived by air in August 2026, 5.9% fewer than in August 2025. When all entry points are included, total arrivals reached 189,772, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.1%. Despite the August result, cumulative air arrivals from January through August still reached 2,025,032 visitors, 5.8% above the same period in 2025. Much of this accumulated growth reflects the strong performance recorded during the first quarter of the year. The U.S. market explains most of the decline The most significant change came from the United States, Costa Rica’s largest international source market. Arrivals from the United States fell 13.7% in August, to 90,560 visitors across all entry points. Because U.S. travelers accounted for close to half of arrivals during the month, this decline was large enough to explain the overall contraction. Other markets performed differently. Canada grew 17.9%, Mexico 9.2%, South America 8.8%, and Europe 2.9%. Central America declined 3.2%. This mixed performance is important. August was not characterized by a generalized decline across all international markets. Instead, the result was heavily influenced by the performance of the U.S. market, while several other source regions continued to grow. Both main airports declined for the first time this year August was also the first month of 2026 in which both of Costa Rica’s main international airports registered year-on-year declines. Juan Santamaría International Airport received 124,723 international visitors, 6.1% fewer than in August 2025. This was its fifth consecutive month of negative year-on-year growth. Daniel Oduber Quirós International Airport in Liberia received 46,836 visitors, a decline of 5.3%. This ended a seven-month period of growth, during which most monthly increases had been in double digits. The change in Liberia is particularly relevant because the airport had been one of the main drivers of national growth during the first part of the year. Are Americans simply traveling less? One of the questions examined in CET Technical Note 14 is whether the reduction in U.S. arrivals reflects a broader decline in international travel by Americans or a change that is more specific to Costa Rica. Data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office show that outbound air travel by U.S. citizens declined 3.3% in August 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier. It was the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline in U.S. international air departures. However, the reduction in U.S. arrivals to Costa Rica was considerably larger at 13.7%. This difference suggests that weaker U.S. outbound travel is part of the context, but it does not fully explain Costa Rica’s August result. The performance also varied across destinations: some countries in the region continued to increase their U.S. arrivals while others recorded declines. A change that requires continued monitoring The August figures should not be interpreted in isolation. Costa Rica continues to show positive cumulative growth for the year, but recent monthly results point to a slower pace than at the beginning of 2026. The combination of weaker arrivals from the United States and simultaneous declines at both major airports makes the performance of the coming months especially relevant. CET Technical Note 14 also identifies another signal that may help explain what is happening: changes in the international air capacity scheduled for Costa Rica. That analysis, together with the CET’s updated outlook for the coming months, forms part of the full report. Read the full Technical Note Technical Note 14-2026: Tourism — Analysis of Arrivals to Costa Rica in August 2026 examines in greater detail: the performance of Costa Rica’s main source markets; differences between San José and Liberia; U.S. outbound travel trends; changes in scheduled international flight frequencies; the relationship between air capacity and arrivals; and CET’s updated tourism outlook. Read Technical Note 14-2026

Beyond growth in international arrivals, tourism performance can also be assessed through its territorial distribution, its capacity to generate opportunities, and its contribution to community well-being. On September 2, Mario Mikowski, a member of the Advisory Committee of the Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET), raised a particularly relevant question for Costa Rica’s current tourism landscape in his column published by El Observador: How do we truly measure success in tourism? His reflection begins with a common feature of the public debate. Whenever a competing destination records significant growth in visitor arrivals, announces new air routes, or reports favorable results, comparisons with Costa Rica quickly follow. Benchmarking is necessary. It helps us understand the competitive environment and identify changes in markets, connectivity, investment, and demand. However, as Mikowski points out, there is a risk of defining Costa Rica’s success exclusively in relation to the performance of other countries, even when those countries may be pursuing different tourism models and objectives. Traditional metrics are essential, but they do not tell the whole story Costa Rica has access to widely used indicators for assessing tourism performance: international arrivals, average length of stay, visitor expenditure, foreign exchange earnings, air connectivity, and economic contribution, among others. These indicators allow us to understand how much tourism is growing and facilitate international comparisons. But there is a second, equally important dimension: determining where the benefits are generated and how they are distributed across the country. Two scenarios may produce similar national figures while generating very different outcomes at the territorial level. An increase in tourism expenditure, for example, may be concentrated in specific destinations or establishments, or it may be distributed among accommodations, restaurants, tour operators, transportation providers, guides, retailers, producers, and other participants in local economies. Understanding tourism performance therefore requires complementing national aggregates with territorial data. Territory matters Costa Rica has developed a significant part of its tourism offering around local communities, small and medium-sized enterprises, and local entrepreneurs. Destinations such as La Fortuna, Monteverde, Tortuguero, Puerto Viejo, Nosara, and many other communities demonstrate how tourism can become deeply integrated into local economies. This characteristic raises an additional question beyond how much tourism grows: To what extent can that growth generate economic and social opportunities in the territories where it takes place? Answering this question requires information that is not always available today with the necessary level of detail, frequency, and coverage. Indicators that could strengthen this analysis include occupancy and average daily rates by destination, visitor length of stay and territorial mobility, tourism activity operations, employment, participation by small and medium-sized enterprises, and the geographical distribution of tourism expenditure. National aggregate analysis would remain essential. The difference would be our ability to also understand what is happening within the country. From tourism performance to social progress Mikowski’s column also introduces a particularly relevant dimension: the Social Progress Index for Tourism Destinations, developed through initiatives promoted by the Costa Rican Tourism Institute (ICT) in coordination with INCAE and subsequently updated. This type of instrument does not replace traditional tourism statistics. It answers a different question. While arrivals, expenditure, or occupancy provide insight into the performance of tourism activity, social indicators help us examine conditions in the communities where that activity takes place. This distinction is important because a correlation between tourism development and improved social conditions does not, by itself, demonstrate causality. However, combining economic, tourism, territorial, and social information allows us to formulate better questions and conduct more precise research into the mechanisms through which tourism may contribute to local development. A broader dashboard for Costa Rica The discussion raised by Mikowski points to an opportunity: progressively expanding the set of indicators Costa Rica uses to assess tourism performance. This does not mean replacing international arrivals, foreign exchange earnings, expenditure, length of stay, or connectivity. It means complementing them. A more comprehensive system could simultaneously monitor: Tourism performance: arrivals, length of stay, expenditure, foreign exchange earnings, connectivity, occupancy, and rates. Territorial distribution: where tourism expenditure occurs and how activity evolves across destinations. Economic participation: employment, entrepreneurship, small and medium-sized enterprises, and local economic linkages. Sustainability: the condition of the natural and cultural resources upon which much of Costa Rica’s tourism offering depends. Territorial well-being: changes in social indicators within host communities. This would allow us to move beyond a predominantly quantitative question — How much did tourism grow? — toward a more comprehensive assessment: Where did it grow, who participated in that growth, and what outcomes did it produce? Measuring success according to the country’s objectives Perhaps one of the most important points raised in the column is that Costa Rica should evaluate its performance according to its own objectives. If the goal is to expand opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises, their participation must be measured. If the objective is to distribute the benefits of tourism more broadly across territories, we need to understand where tourism expenditure is generated and captured. If sustainability is an essential component of Costa Rica’s tourism model, the condition of the resources that support that model must also be monitored. And if tourism is expected to contribute to community well-being, that dimension must also become part of the assessment. For CET, expanding the availability and granularity of data is an important condition for moving in this direction. Better territorial measurement would make it possible to identify differences among destinations, investigate their causes, and generate evidence to inform both public and private decision-making. The success of Costa Rica’s tourism activity does not have to be summarized by a single figure. It can be understood as a combination of growth, value creation, territorial distribution, sustainability, and opportunities for the people who live in tourism destinations. The question raised by Mario Mikowski therefore deserves to remain open: What outcomes do we want tourism to produce, and do we currently have the indicators needed to determine whether we are achieving them? Reference article This analysis by the Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) is based on the column “¿Cómo medimos el éxito en turismo?” (“How Do We Measure Success in Tourism?”), written by Mario Mikowski, a member of CET’s Advisory Committee, and originally published by El Observador on September 2, 2026. Read Mario Mikowski’s original column in El Observador Credit: Mario Mikowski / El Observador. The original content and opinions expressed in the column are those of its author. This article constitutes an editorial reflection by the Centro de Estudios del Turismo based on the issues raised in the original publication.

Costa Rica recorded 248,070 international arrivals by air in July 2026, 2.3% more than a year earlier. Growth returned to positive territory after June's decline, but the figures reveal an important shift: Liberia continues to gain share, San José remains in negative territory, and Europe is becoming increasingly important while the United States remains virtually flat. Download the complete Technical Note 13-2026 to review the full analysis, charts, data, and forecasting methodology developed by the Centro de Estudios del Turismo. International arrival figures for July confirm that tourism activity in Costa Rica is experiencing two clearly differentiated phases in 2026. Following an exceptional first quarter, when year-on-year growth ranged between 10% and 14%, the pace has slowed considerably since April. July closed with 248,070 international arrivals by air, representing a 2.3% increase compared with July 2025. Across all modes of entry, Costa Rica recorded 268,064 arrivals, also 2.3% higher than a year earlier. Between January and July, the country accumulated 1,853,430 international air arrivals, 7.0% above the same period in 2025. The year-to-date result remains strong, although it continues to reflect the exceptional performance recorded during the first months of the year. Since April, monthly growth has remained within a much narrower range, including a 1.2% decline in June. July's return to positive territory suggests that June did not mark the beginning of a sustained contraction. However, the national figure conceals important differences among source markets and airports. Europe gains momentum as the United States remains virtually flat The United States continues to be by far Costa Rica's largest source market. It accounted for 154,301 arrivals in July, approximately 62% of all international air arrivals during the month. Nevertheless, arrivals from the United States increased by only 0.4% year on year. This represents an improvement from the 3.0% decline recorded in Jun e, but it also confirms that Costa Rica's largest tourism market is currently showing little growth. Europe provided much of July's momentum. Arrivals from European markets increased by 9.5%, reaching 45,592 travelers. Among the major European markets, France grew 10.8%, the United Kingdom 9.3%, and Germany 8.9%. Other markets also posted positive results. Canada increased 7.4%, Mexico 6.6%, and South America 2.5%. Central America moved in the opposite direction, with arrivals falling 11.4%, marking a second consecutive month of significant decline. The figures therefore show that July's growth was not primarily generated by the United States, as might traditionally be expected, but by stronger performance from European markets and several smaller source markets. Liberia grows 12.6% while San José records its fourth consecutive decline The most significant divergence in July becomes evident when Costa Rica's two main international airports are compared. Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) received 158,076 tourists, representing a 2.7% year-on-year decline. July therefore became the fourth consecutive month of negative growth at SJO. Daniel Oduber Quirós International Airport in Liberia (LIR), in contrast, received 89,947 tourists, 12.6% more than in July 2025. Liberia accounted for approximately 36% of all international air arrivals during the month. The divergence is also evident in year-to-date figures. Between January and July, international arrivals through Liberia increased 13.3%, compared with growth of only 3.6% through San José. Since April, essentially all of Costa Rica's aggregate growth in international air arrivals has been associated with Guanacaste. CET's Technical Note 13-2026 points to factors related to Guanacaste's connectivity and tourism product — including resorts, sun-and-beach travel, high-value segments, and direct international air services from selected markets — as contributing to this performance. At the same time, the evolution of arrivals through San José raises relevant questions regarding national tourism promotion, domestic connectivity between destinations, and the behavior of travelers using the country's main international gateway. Exchange-rate appreciation and the evolution of average length of stay also remain important variables to monitor, as highlighted in previous CET technical notes. CET's forecasting model faces its first real-time test Technical Note 13 also provides an important opportunity to evaluate CET's analytical work: the first real-time comparison between its tourist-arrival forecasting model and the subsequently released official data. CET had projected 247,750 international air arrivals for July. The official figure was 248,070. The difference was just 320 travelers, equivalent to an error of approximately 0.1%. The official result also fell within the model's estimated probable range of 233,100 to 268,100 arrivals. Although July's result was unusually accurate, CET cautions against using a single forecast to assess the model's predictive capacity. Its historical performance provides a more realistic benchmark, with an average forecasting error of approximately 5%. The model combines two components: recent arrival trends and signals derived from Google searches associated with travel to Costa Rica. What could happen in August and September? After incorporating July's official figures and updating Google search data through August 17, CET revised its outlook for the following two months. For August 2026, the model projects 185,985 international air arrivals, compared with 182,342 in August 2025. This would represent growth of approximately 2.0%. The model's probable range is between 174,900 and 201,700 arrivals. For September 2026, traditionally the lowest point of Costa Rica's low season, CET projects 107,125 arrivals, approximately 2.8% above September 2025. The probable range is between 101,500 and 116,900 arrivals. The August forecast changed very little from the projection published one month earlier — from 185,560 to 185,985 arrivals — providing an indication of model stability. Overall, the forecasts do not suggest either a significant acceleration or further deterioration during the low season. Instead, they point toward a continuation of the moderate growth observed in recent months. Positive growth, but with a different engine July's figures reveal a change that goes beyond Costa Rica's overall growth rate. The country continues to receive more international travelers than in 2025, but the current sources of growth differ significantly from those observed at the beginning of the year. Europe is showing stronger momentum. The United States remains virtually flat. Liberia continues to post double-digit growth, while San José has now recorded four consecutive months of decline. Monitoring these developments will be particularly important over the coming months. Key variables include the recovery of the U.S. market, the performance of arrivals through Juan Santamaría International Airport, and Costa Rica's ability to capitalize on the dynamism of European markets and Liberia's connectivity during the year-end travel season. Read the complete analysis Technical Note 13-2026, “Tourism: Analysis of Arrivals to Costa Rica in July 2026,” examines these trends in greater detail and includes market-level data, airport performance, charts, forecast methodology, probability ranges, and the main conclusions of the analysis. Download the complete Technical Note 13-2026 to review the full analysis, charts, data, and forecasting methodology developed by the Centro de Estudios del Turismo.

CET Technical Note 12-2026 analyzes the evolution of international arrivals and outbound travel by Costa Ricans between 2019 and 2025, revealing a markedly asymmetric recovery in these two flows. The data reveal a markedly asymmetric post-pandemic recovery. While outbound travel by Costa Ricans has moved well above 2019 levels, international arrivals have yet to fully recover their pre-pandemic volume. In 2025, Costa Rica recorded 2.94 million international arrivals, still 6.2% below the 2019 level. In contrast, outbound trips by Costa Ricans reached a record 1.50 million, 38.2% above the pre-pandemic level. Two increasingly different trajectories In 2019, Costa Rica recorded 3.14 million international arrivals and 1.09 million outbound trips by Costa Ricans. By 2025, international arrivals had reached 2.94 million, still 6.2% below the 2019 level, while outbound trips reached a record 1.50 million, 38.2% above 2019. The difference is also evident in recent growth rates. International arrivals increased 17.1% in 2023, but growth slowed to 6.1% in 2024 and just 0.8% in 2025. Outbound trips by Costa Ricans grew 36.0% in 2023, 16.2% in 2024, and 8.5% in 2025. As a result, the ratio between the two flows fell from 2.89 international arrivals for every outbound trip by a Costa Rican in 2019 to 1.96 in 2025. Where are Costa Ricans traveling? Panama and the United States remain the two leading declared destinations, together accounting for approximately 46% of outbound trips in 2025. Panama recorded 355,521 trips, representing 23.7% of the total, while the United States received 333,660, or 22.2%. One of the most significant changes was Colombia. Outbound trips increased from 49,205 in 2019 to 147,177 in 2025, a 199% rise that made Colombia the fifth-largest declared destination for Costa Ricans. Spain also recorded strong growth, rising 125% compared with 2019, while Guatemala increased 101%. Mexico grew 18% and Nicaragua 45%. By contrast, declared trips to El Salvador declined 11% and those to Peru fell 17%. Juan Santamaría International Airport accounted for 79% of outbound trips by Costa Ricans in 2025, equivalent to approximately 1.19 million air movements. The destination reported in migration records corresponds to the country declared to immigration officials. In air travel, this may sometimes be a connecting point rather than the traveler’s final destination, which can increase the statistical importance of major hubs such as Panama or Madrid. The origin of international arrivals has also changed The composition of international arrivals has undergone a significant transformation. The United States accounted for 55.3% of all international arrivals in 2025, with 1.63 million arrivals, 22% above the 2019 level. Canada also surpassed its pre-pandemic level, reaching 274,081 arrivals, an increase of 17%. Together, these two markets explain a substantial share of Costa Rica’s post-pandemic recovery. Europe, however, remained approximately 5.8% below its 2019 level. Germany was slightly above its pre-pandemic figure, while France, the United Kingdom, and Spain remained below 2019. One of the most important structural changes occurred in Central America. Arrivals from the region fell from 698,601 in 2019 to 247,850 in 2025, a decline of approximately 65%. Nicaragua accounts for most of this reduction. Arrivals fell from 414,983 in 2019 to 97,554 in 2025, a decrease of approximately 76%. South America also remained below its 2019 level, with an aggregate decline of 20.4%. Why has Costa Rica not yet recovered its 2019 arrival level? Between 2019 and 2025, Costa Rica recorded a net decline of 195,017 international arrivals. However, this aggregate figure reflects very different regional trends. Nicaragua alone accounted for 317,429 fewer arrivals compared with 2019, while Central America as a whole lost 450,751 arrivals. Additional declines were recorded in South America, Europe, and the Caribbean. In the opposite direction, North America contributed 333,029 additional arrivals compared with 2019. The United States added approximately 293,030 arrivals and Canada 39,460. Costa Rica’s overall international arrival performance therefore reflects two simultaneous trends: strong expansion in the North American market and a major contraction in the Central American market, particularly Nicaragua. The balance of payments also reflects this transformation These migration flows are also reflected in the travel account of Costa Rica’s balance of payments. Travel receipts —expenditure by non-resident visitors in Costa Rica— increased from US$3.9885 billion in 2019 to US$5.5713 billion in 2025, an increase of 39.7%. This occurred even though total international arrivals remained 6.2% below their 2019 level. When these figures are compared, average travel receipts per arrival increased from approximately US$1,270 in 2019 to around US$1,890 in 2025. This may reflect higher visitor spending, longer stays, or a combination of both factors. Travel expenditures —spending by residents traveling abroad— grew considerably faster. They increased from US$1.0357 billion in 2019 to US$2.1265 billion in 2025, a rise of 105.3%. Average expenditure per outbound trip increased from approximately US$950 to US$1,420 over the same period. Costa Rica continues to maintain a substantial travel account surplus. However, the surplus declined from US$3.5609 billion in 2024 to US$3.4448 billion in 2025, a 3.3% reduction and the first decline recorded since the pandemic. In 2025, travel receipts increased by only 2.0%, while travel expenditures rose 11.9%. A changing relationship between inbound and outbound travel The data show that Costa Rica continues to generate substantial international travel receipts, supported particularly by the growth of the North American market and higher average receipts per arrival. At the same time, outbound travel by Costa Ricans continues to expand and now stands well above pre-pandemic levels. The pattern is also consistent with the appreciation of the Costa Rican colón since 2022, which reduces the relative cost of international travel for residents while increasing Costa Rica’s relative cost for foreign visitors. The combination of nearly stagnant international arrivals and faster growth in travel expenditures abroad is therefore a trend that warrants continued monitoring, particularly because of its potential implications for the travel account surplus and the net supply of foreign currency generated by travel activity. About the data The analysis uses official information from the Costa Rican Tourism Board (ICT), the General Directorate of Migration and Immigration (DGME), and the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR). International arrivals correspond to non-resident visitors entering Costa Rica through all entry routes and include different purposes of travel. They should therefore not be interpreted exclusively as leisure tourism. Outbound figures correspond to migration movements of Costa Rican nationals recorded by the DGME according to border post and declared destination. Migration statistics classify travelers by nationality, whereas the BCCR travel account uses residency as its classification criterion. For this reason, the two datasets provide complementary evidence on related trends, but their magnitudes are not strictly comparable. Read Technical Note 12-2026 for the complete analysis, tables, charts, and methodology.

The Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) has developed a model to estimate, one and two months in advance, the number of international tourists expected to arrive in Costa Rica by air. The tool combines two main signals: the recent trend in arrivals and the behavior of Google searches conducted from the United States, a market that accounts for approximately 60% of the country’s air arrivals. According to Technical Note 11-2026, the model forecasts approximately 247,750 tourists in July 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 2.2%, and 185,560 tourists in August, an increase of 1.8% compared with the same month in 2025. An Early Signal for Decision-Making Official arrival figures are released several weeks after the end of each month. The CET’s new model seeks to reduce this information gap and provide advance data for businesses, organizations and public authorities connected to the tourism activity. The analysis is based on a simple premise: before purchasing a ticket, travelers search for destinations, lodging, prices and experiences. These searches generate a public and measurable signal that may anticipate changes in demand. Each month, the CET monitors five search terms related to travel to Costa Rica from the United States and evaluates how their movements are subsequently reflected in international arrivals. Low Growth and Weaker Momentum The forecasts for July and August indicate positive but limited growth. The expected pace is close to 2% year over year and confirms a slowdown compared with the performance recorded during the first months of 2026. The results do not suggest a significant change in the recent trend. Instead, they indicate that the tourism activity is likely to continue showing limited momentum in the short term. Each estimate includes a probable range to reflect the uncertainty inherent in any forecast. For July, the model estimates between 233,100 and 268,100 tourists, while the August range is between 175,500 and 203,200 tourists. A Model Tested Against Historical Results Before publication, the model was validated through a 30-month retrospective test. In each case, the forecast was produced using only the information that would have been available at that point in time and was later compared with the actual figure. The average error was 4.7% for one-month forecasts and 5.6% for two-month forecasts. These results outperformed a simple benchmark that assumes the same number of tourists as in the previous year. The model can anticipate the normal behavior of arrivals, but it cannot predict unexpected events such as health crises, security incidents or airport closures. Toward Longer-Range Forecasts The CET is working to incorporate additional variables, including advance lodging bookings and the number of scheduled airline seats to Costa Rica. These data could improve the model’s accuracy and extend the forecasting horizon beyond two months. Part of this information is already available through specialized platforms used by the Costa Rican Tourism Board. The Technical Note highlights the value of sharing these data regularly in order to strengthen tourism planning and improve access to timely information. A Monthly Publication for the Tourism Activity The CET will publish this forecast every month as a public good for lodging providers, tour operators, airlines, organizations and authorities. The information will provide an early signal for planning staffing, inventories, promotion, operating capacity and other decisions related to expected demand. Technical Note 11-2026, “Costa Rica: How Many Tourists Will Arrive in the Next Two Months?”, includes a description of the model, its validation results, forecast ranges and the main opportunities for future improvement. About CET and This Publication The Centro de Estudios del Turismo (CET) is an independent, nonprofit think tank dedicated to the technical analysis of tourism in Costa Rica. Its purpose is to strengthen the competitiveness and sustainability of tourism by openly disseminating data and rigorous analysis that support evidence-based decision-making. The analyses are based on reliable sources, which are cited in each document. Projections reflect the best information available as of the publication date and are subject to the inherent uncertainty of any forward-looking exercise; they do not constitute commercial or investment advice. The conclusions are the sole responsibility of CET. Centro de Estudios del Turismo · www.cet-cr.org

CET Technical Note 10 examines how visitor spending and length of stay changed between 2006 and 2025. International visitors to Costa Rica are spending more dollars per day, but staying for fewer nights. This combination marks an important shift in tourism demand and raises questions about competitiveness, value creation, and the country’s ability to sustain longer visits. Technical Note 10-2026, published by the Center for Tourism Studies (CET), analyzes the evolution of average length of stay and visitor spending between 2006 and 2025. It compares the results of surveys conducted by the Costa Rican Tourism Institute (ICT) with travel receipts recorded in the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s Balance of Payments. The analysis makes it possible to examine not only how much revenue is recorded per visitor, but also how long tourists stay, how much they spend per day, and how much of the increase measured in US dollars may be linked to changes in prices and the exchange rate. A Historically Stable Length of Stay That Has Begun to Decline For almost two decades, the average number of nights spent by tourists in Costa Rica remained within a relatively stable range. Even during the pandemic years, those who were able to travel tended to stay longer in the country. This pattern changed in recent years. Average length of stay began to decline consecutively and reached the lowest level in the series in 2025. This behavior may be associated with several factors, including changes in visitor segments, a greater share of short trips, shifts in travel itineraries, higher destination costs, or methodological changes in the surveys. The Technical Note does not attribute the result to a single cause, but identifies signals that require continued monitoring and further analysis. Higher Spending Per Day, but Not Necessarily More Consumption in Real Terms Average spending per person during the trip increased significantly in US dollars, particularly after 2020. However, this result must be interpreted with caution. When the duration of the trip declines while total spending remains high, average spending per night increases. This means that visitors are paying more for each day spent in Costa Rica, although they are not necessarily consuming a greater volume of services. Part of the increase may be explained by higher international prices and by the exchange-rate effect. When the Costa Rican colón appreciates, tourism services priced in colones become more expensive when converted into US dollars. A higher figure in dollars, therefore, does not automatically represent an equivalent increase in consumption or in the real value received by businesses. The Result Changes When Revenue Is Converted into Colones To better understand the effect on tourism businesses, the Technical Note converts visitor spending into colones using the average exchange rate for each year. This comparison shows that the highest figures in US dollars do not always coincide with the highest revenues in local currency. Businesses may bill more dollars per visitor while receiving fewer colones than in previous years. This is particularly relevant because a large share of operating costs—including wages, social security contributions, utilities, rent, and purchases from domestic suppliers—is paid in colones. The analysis therefore distinguishes between a nominal increase in US dollars and an effective improvement in the income-generating capacity of tourism activity. Why Do the ICT and the Central Bank Report Different Figures? The Technical Note compares two sources that measure tourism spending from different perspectives. ICT surveys collect information directly from tourists departing through the country’s international airports. Their responses are used to estimate length of stay, declared expenditure, and average spending per person. The Central Bank, in turn, estimates the foreign currency entering the country under the Travel account of the Balance of Payments. This measure may include flows that visitors do not directly perceive or report, such as some components of tourism packages purchased abroad. For several years, spending reported by air travelers was higher than the average calculated by the Central Bank. This was expected, because visitors arriving by air generally spend more than those entering through other channels. However, this relationship changed in some recent years. The Technical Note examines this divergence and highlights the need to consider the exchange-rate effect, methodological changes in the surveys, and differences in coverage between the two sources. Costa Rica Still Maintains a Long Average Stay Compared with Other Destinations The decline in average length of stay must also be examined from an international perspective. Costa Rica has traditionally recorded longer visits than many comparable vacation destinations. This is related to a tourism model in which visitors travel across several regions and combine nature, adventure, beaches, culture, wellness, and protected areas within a single trip. Even after the decline observed in 2025, the country’s average length of stay remains above that of several destinations in the Caribbean and Latin America. The main challenge is not only the current level, but the direction of the trend. A sustained reduction could move Costa Rica closer to shorter and more concentrated travel models, limiting the territorial distribution of visitor spending. What the Statistical Relationships Show The research includes an exploratory statistical analysis of the relationship between daily spending, the exchange rate, inflation, and selected domestic conditions. The results suggest that a substantial share of the increase in spending measured in US dollars is associated with the appreciation of the colón and with changes in international prices. In other words, the increase may reflect higher prices more than an equivalent rise in the volume of tourism products and services consumed. The Technical Note also examines the relationship between security and length of stay. The results show an association between higher homicide rates and shorter visits. CET nevertheless emphasizes that these statistical relationships do not, by themselves, constitute definitive proof of causality. The Appreciation of the Colón Continued in 2026 The monthly exchange-rate trajectory shows that the appreciation of the colón intensified between the end of 2025 and the first months of 2026. This movement may once again increase tourism spending measured in US dollars, even when visitors consume a similar volume of services. At the same time, it may reinforce the perception of Costa Rica as an expensive destination and place additional pressure on the margins of businesses that receive dollars while facing rising costs in local currency. A Transformation That Requires Continued Monitoring The main conclusion of Technical Note 10 is that Costa Rica’s tourism model is undergoing a change: visitors are spending more dollars per day, but staying for fewer nights. This result should not be interpreted as entirely positive or negative. Higher daily spending may reflect the country’s ability to attract higher-value visitor segments, but a prolonged decline in length of stay may reduce total expenditure, mobility between regions, and the distribution of benefits among businesses and communities. Future performance will depend on the destination’s ability to justify higher prices through a strong value proposition, improve mobility and the visitor experience, strengthen security, and preserve the appeal of itineraries that encourage travel across different regions of the country. The full Technical Note presents the historical series, comparative tables, methodology, statistical estimates, and sources used in the analysis. Download Technical Note 10-2026: Costa Rica: Average Length of Stay and Visitor Spending. ICT Surveys Compared with the Central Bank’s Balance of Payments. Author: Víctor Umaña, Executive Director of the Center for Tourism Studies. Period analyzed: 2006–2025. Published: July 2026.

CET Technical Note NT09-2026 analyzes international tourist arrivals in May 2026, the record-breaking January–May cumulative result, the growth of Guanacaste and Canada, and the tourism-related cost of Costa Rica’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. International arrivals in May 2026 In May 2026, Costa Rica received 213,089 tourists through all ports of entry, 3.5% more than in May 2025. Air arrivals reached 195,571 visitors, representing year-over-year growth of 3.0%. Although the result is positive, May 2026 did not surpass the series record set in May 2024, when arrivals reached 216,702. The month’s growth was moderate and was mainly explained by two factors: the dynamism of the Canadian market and the performance of Guanacaste International Airport. By contrast, the United States, Costa Rica’s main source market, remained practically stable, with year-over-year growth of only 0.4%. In the January–May 2026 period, Costa Rica received 1,502,896 tourists, 8.3% more than in the same period of 2025. This marks a historical high for the first five months of the year and, for the first time, surpasses the level recorded in 2019, before the pandemic. However, the figure should be read with caution: most of the momentum was concentrated in the first months of the year, while April and May showed a more moderate trend. From a seasonal perspective, May remains a transition month. It stands below the high-season peak, concentrated between December and March, and comes before the June–July rebound associated with family travel from the Northern Hemisphere. In terms of volume, May remains in the lower third of the year, although the 2026 result is above the month’s recent historical average. The market composition confirms Costa Rica’s strong concentration in North America, which accounted for 72% of May arrivals. The United States remains, by a wide margin, the country’s main source market, with 130,491 tourists, equivalent to just over 6 out of every 10 international arrivals during the month. Canada was the most dynamic market, growing by 24.8% in May and 25.6% in the January–May cumulative period. Europe also showed a relevant rebound in May, with regional growth of 15.0%, driven by markets such as Germany, Italy, and Israel. This increase should be interpreted in context, as May is part of the low season for several European markets, meaning that percentage growth is calculated over relatively smaller volumes. Airport performance provides an important territorial reading of tourism activity. In May, Guanacaste International Airport received 69,430 tourists, a 12.0% increase compared with the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, Juan Santamaría International Airport recorded 126,053 arrivals, a decline of 1.4%. As a result, Guanacaste now accounts for 35.5% of air arrivals in the month, compared with approximately 19% in 2019. This trend confirms Guanacaste’s growing weight in Costa Rica’s international air connectivity. For tourism planning, the data points to the need to monitor more closely the territorial distribution of demand, airport infrastructure, domestic connectivity, pressure on local services, and the capacity of destinations to absorb growth without affecting the quality of the visitor experience or the sustainability of the tourism model. The note also includes a special box on the tourism cost of Costa Rica’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Beyond the sporting result, the analysis highlights the loss of the so-called “spotlight effect,” meaning the international exposure that a World Cup provides to participating countries. According to the model cited in the note, this absence could represent around 30,000 fewer tourists and nearly USD 40 million in tourism value added that would not materialize. In summary, May 2026 shows a positive recovery, but not a broad-based takeoff. The January–May cumulative result reached a historical high, although recent growth appears concentrated in specific markets, months, and points of entry. Canada, Guanacaste, and some European markets explain much of the progress, while other markets and airports show signs of stability or stagnation. Through this monitoring, CET seeks to contribute evidence to a more rigorous discussion on competitiveness, connectivity, market diversification, and tourism planning. International arrival figures must be read beyond the aggregate number: it is essential to understand which markets are growing, where visitors are entering the country, when they are traveling, and what these dynamics mean for Costa Rica’s tourism destinations.

The Center for Tourism Studies presents Technical Note 07-2026, an analysis of the recent evolution of Costa Rica’s electric power system, with emphasis on demand, generation by source, the growing use of thermal generation and the implications for the country’s competitiveness and tourism activity. The report analyzes data from the National Electric System for 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The evidence shows that Costa Rica is entering a new stage of pressure on its electric power system: demand is growing, peak demand is increasing and dispatchable renewable supply does not appear to be expanding at the same pace. In 2025, national electricity demand reached 12,995 GWh, 1.6% higher than in 2024. However, in the first quarter of 2026, growth accelerated to 3.35% year-over-year, with accumulated demand reaching 3,297 GWh. Peak demand reached 1,996 MW on March 18, 2026, representing a 4.5% increase compared with the first quarter of 2025. One of the most relevant findings is the changing role of thermal generation. In 2025, Costa Rica significantly reduced the use of thermal power generation compared with 2024, supported by hydrological recovery. However, in just the first quarter of 2026, thermal generation accumulated 128.9 GWh, equivalent to 71% of all electricity generated from this source during 2025. This behavior suggests that thermal generation may be moving beyond its traditional role as an exceptional backup during drought periods and becoming a system management tool in a context of greater climate uncertainty, the need to preserve reservoirs and rising electricity demand. The note also identifies a recomposition of the electricity matrix. Hydropower’s share declined from 68.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to 64.6% in the same period of 2026. At the same time, thermal generation increased from 3.0% to 4.0%, and the system shifted from net exports of 131.4 GWh in Q1 2025 to net imports of 35.8 GWh in Q1 2026. This shift introduces a double vulnerability: climate-related and geopolitical. Dependence on hydropower exposes the system to more variable rainfall patterns, while greater use of thermal generation increases exposure to international oil prices, hydrocarbon imports and external logistical or geopolitical tensions. For tourism activity, this issue is especially sensitive. Electricity is a cross-cutting input for lodging, air conditioning, refrigeration, transportation, gastronomy, commerce and related services. A sustained increase in electricity and fuel costs may put pressure on business operating margins, especially in coastal and rural regions where competitiveness depends on reasonable costs, service quality and operational stability. Electric security can no longer be treated as a guaranteed attribute of the Costa Rican model. It is becoming a critical determinant of productive development policy, investment attraction, territorial competitiveness and the future of tourism activity. Through this technical note, CET seeks to contribute evidence to a more rigorous national conversation on energy, competitiveness and tourism development. Costa Rica must anticipate risks, accelerate the expansion of firm renewable supply and strengthen electric system planning as an integral part of its development strategy.

Signals that require attention persist Costa Rica: International Arrivals and Tourism Revenues Technical Note 06-2026 · January–March 2026 · Series 2019–2025 Published: April 2026 | Víctor Umaña, Executive Director CET Costa Rica began 2026 with a historic result in international arrivals. During the first quarter, the country received 1,033,777 visitors, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3% and, notably, the first time a first quarter surpasses the pre-pandemic level of 2019. This is a positive signal for tourism activity and confirms renewed momentum in visitor inflows to the country. March performance was particularly strong. In that month alone, 379,818 international arrivals were recorded, an increase of 12.9% compared to March 2025. For the quarter as a whole, air travel accounted for most of the growth, with Liberia once again outperforming the national average. The Daniel Oduber Airport in Guanacaste reached 368,413 arrivals in the quarter, growing by 16.9% and consolidating its increasing role in the country’s tourism connectivity. Figura 1. SJO y LIR: llegadas aéreas Q1 en miles (barras apiladas), 2019–2026. LIR (dorado) supera en 2026 los 368K pasajeros en el trimestre, ganando participación en el total aéreo de forma sostenida desde 2019. By source markets, North America maintained a clear lead, accounting for more than seven out of every ten arrivals during the quarter. Canada stood out among high-volume markets with a 26.7% increase, driven by the expansion of direct routes to Guanacaste. Europe also showed encouraging signals, with notable growth from Spain and Israel. In contrast, Central America was the only region to post a decline, mainly due to reduced land-based flows. Figura 2. Llegadas Q1 por región de origen — 2024, 2025 y 2026 (miles). Los porcentajes sobre las barras de 2026 muestran la variación respecto a Q1 2025. EE.UU. mantiene el liderazgo; Canadá registra el mayor crecimiento relativo entre mercados de alto volumen. However, the broader interpretation should not focus solely on the increase in visitor numbers. The technical note also analyzes tourism revenues through the end of 2025 and highlights a particularly relevant phenomenon: Costa Rica reached a historic record of $5.571 billion in international travel revenues, a 2.0% increase compared to 2024 and 39.7% above 2019, despite total arrivals still remaining below pre-pandemic levels. In other words, the country is generating more foreign exchange with fewer visitors. Figura 3. Ingresos por turismo. La línea punteada dorada marca el nivel de 2019 ($3,989 M). En 2025 los ingresos lo superan en +39.7%, pese a que las llegadas 2025 permanecen por debajo de ese año. Figura 3b. Ingresos por turismo receptor en colones corrientes (miles de millones de colones, B), calculados multiplicando los ingresos en USD por el tipo de cambio promedio anual BCCR-MONEX (indicado debajo de cada barra). En colones, el pico se registra en 2024 (2,818B); en 2025 (2,802B) se observa una leve caida pese al record en USD, ilustrando como la apreciacion cambiaria modera el valor de los ingresos medidos en moneda local. This decoupling between arrivals and revenues is arguably the most important finding of the analysis. According to the note’s hypothesis, this behavior reflects two simultaneous forces. First, a potential repositioning toward higher-value segments, with demand shifting toward higher-spending visitors. Second, the appreciation of the Costa Rican colón, which makes the destination more expensive in dollar terms and mechanically increases average spending when measured in USD. Figura 4. Gasto por turista en USD (línea verde, eje izq.) y tipo de cambio ₡/USD promedio anual (línea roja, eje der. invertido: hacia arriba equivale a mayor apreciación). La caída del tipo de cambio desde 2022 coincide con el salto en el gasto por turista expresado en dólares. The data on spending per tourist reinforces this interpretation. In 2025, it was estimated at $1,892 per visitor, a 49% increase compared to 2019. However, this improvement in dollar terms does not necessarily translate into a better reality for businesses that operate and incur costs in colones. In fact, when tourism revenues are analyzed in local currency, the picture changes: although 2025 was a record year in USD, in nominal colones it came in slightly below 2024. That is the uncomfortable detail. Revenues are higher in dollars, yes—but not necessarily more profitable in real terms. Average length of stay does not explain the increase in revenues either. According to the series cited in the note, the duration of visits has remained stable for years, closing at 12.2 nights in 2024, very close to pre-pandemic levels. This means that higher revenues are not driven by longer stays, but by higher spending within a similar timeframe. Another structural pressure adds to this dynamic. The same strong colón that makes Costa Rica more expensive for foreign visitors also makes outbound travel more affordable for Costa Ricans. As a result, outbound tourism spending continues to grow, reducing the net foreign exchange surplus generated by tourism. In 2025, that surplus reached $3.444 billion—still high, but 3.3% lower than in 2024. The ratio of outbound to inbound tourism spending has also increased significantly in recent years. In summary, Costa Rica shows a very strong start to 2026 in terms of international arrivals, confirming its continued appeal as a destination. At the same time, the data suggest that strong performance in visitor numbers and dollar revenues should not be interpreted simplistically. Exchange rate dynamics, margin pressures, and rising outbound tourism all call for a more nuanced reading of the current situation. From the CET’s perspective, this technical note aims precisely at that: to acknowledge the positive data, but with a clear-eyed view. Because in tourism, as in life, not every record necessarily translates into relief.

In practice, Central America is consolidating tourism corridors that deserve a more strategic reading. That is one of the main findings of Technical Note 05-2026 by the Center for Tourism Studies, which examines the dynamics of international visitors in Guatemala and El Salvador, the facilitation of movement under the CA-4 agreement, air connectivity, and spending patterns in both destinations. The data clearly show that Central America is the main source market for both countries. In Guatemala, 60% of arrivals in 2024 came from Central America, and Salvadorans alone accounted for 44% of the total. In El Salvador, 44% of tourists came from Central America, and Guatemalans represented 26%, making them the second-largest source market, behind only the United States. This pattern is not explained solely by geographic proximity. It also rests on a concrete institutional framework. The CA-4 agreement has reduced friction in regional mobility by allowing travel with a national identity document and simplifying migration procedures at border crossings. This helps explain why 58% of arrivals to Guatemala and 50% of arrivals to El Salvador enter by land. The analysis also highlights that an important share of this movement corresponds to same-day visitors and short-distance travelers. In 2024, Guatemala recorded 698,575 same-day visitors and El Salvador 769,806. Added to this is a particularly relevant component in the Salvadoran case: non-resident nationals, who account for around 12% of visitors and make up a segment with a different logic from conventional tourism, more closely tied to family visits, longer stays, and significant accumulated spending. Another important finding is that the Guatemala–El Salvador corridor is already beginning to materialize as an organized tourism product. The 2025 launch of the Centroamérica Shuttle between Antigua Guatemala and Surf City reflects sufficient critical mass to structure a formal binational offering, supported by land connectivity, complementary attractions, and a steady flow of travelers. Honduras also appears as a natural extension that remains underused within this same regional logic. En conectividad aérea, Costa Rica mantiene liderazgo regional con 10,16 millones de asientos ofrecidos al año, mientras El Salvador y Guatemala se sitúan prácticamente al mismo nivel, con 6,21 y 6,13 millones respectivamente. Sin embargo, la nota advierte que el alto costo de los tiquetes intrarregionales sigue siendo una de las principales barreras para profundizar la movilidad turística aérea dentro de Centroamérica.  } In terms of spending, Guatemala and El Salvador show very similar total expenditure per visit, between $1,070 and $1,082, although with different profiles. El Salvador records higher daily spending, but with shorter stays. Costa Rica, by contrast, combines higher daily spending with longer stays, which raises its total spending per visit to $1,861, or 72% above the GT–SV corridor. Beyond the numbers, the broader reading is quite revealing. Guatemala and El Salvador are not only growing. They are showing that proximity, border integration, land mobility, and the articulation of shared products can become concrete competitive advantages. For Central American tourism, this opens up a serious and very useful question: how to move from spontaneous flows to the deliberate design of multi-destination corridors with a regional vision. Because one thing is for a corridor to exist, and quite another, much better thing, is to govern it well.

An Encouraging Start for Tourism Activity Costa Rica began 2026 with a positive sign in international arrival trends. During January and February, the country welcomed 653,959 international travelers, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and making this the strongest first two-month period since the pandemic. This is an important result, not only because of the cumulative volume, but also because it confirms a recovery that is regaining momentum after a recent period marked by mixed signals. In an international environment still sensitive to economic, exchange-rate, and geopolitical factors, this performance provides an encouraging foundation for the country’s tourism activity. February Sends an Especially Positive Signal February was particularly favorable. With 331,967 international arrivals, the country posted a 13.0% increase compared to February 2025. Beyond the headline number, the daily average offers an even clearer reading: February 2026 stands as the best February in the recent series in terms of arrivals per day. That detail matters. Monthly data can sometimes be influenced by the number of days in a month or by calendar effects. However, when looking at daily performance, the trend appears more solid and suggests that there is real momentum in international demand for Costa Rica at the start of the year. Guanacaste Stands Out Again as a Strategic Gateway One of the most relevant findings of the technical note is the performance of Daniel Oduber Airport in Liberia. During the first two months of the year, this terminal recorded 114,420 international arrivals, with growth of 18.9%, well above the pace observed at Juan Santamaría Airport. This result confirms Guanacaste’s consolidation as an increasingly strong entry point for international tourism, especially in segments associated with sun and beach, nature, wellness, and higher-spending travel experiences. It also reinforces the importance of regional air connectivity and the positioning of Northern Pacific destinations within the national tourism offering. Source Markets Show Opportunity, but Progress Is Uneven The rebound is not explained by a single market. Canada stands out as one of the main drivers of recent growth, showing robust performance among the highest-volume source markets. Positive signs are also visible in several European countries, along with meaningful gains from some South American markets. This diversification is good news. It partially reduces dependence on a small number of origins and creates room for a more balanced demand structure. Still, the picture is not uniform. Some markets continue to recover more slowly, which makes it necessary to watch closely the evolution of factors such as the exchange rate, the relative cost of the destination, and available connectivity. Central America Remains a Warning Sign Not all parts of the map show positive results. Central America was the only region to post a negative variation in February, driven mainly by a decline in land arrivals from neighboring countries. This pattern deserves attention because it reminds us that not all tourism flows respond in the same way. While long-haul markets may show recovery through air travel, regional and overland movements respond to different dynamics, often linked to costs, border mobility, economic conditions, or shifts in short-stay travel patterns. Seasonality Remains Strong and Continues to Shape the Year The data also confirm that the destination’s seasonality remains very clear. The first quarter continues to concentrate the highest volumes of the year, followed by a gradual slowdown toward the lower-demand months and a recovery toward year-end. In that sense, the strong performance at the beginning of 2026 is also connected to an important earlier signal: December 2025 was the best December in the recent series. This suggests that the momentum now being observed is not emerging in isolation, but rather as part of a broader trajectory that has been showing strength during peak demand periods. A Recovery That Should Be Read with Caution From CET’s perspective, the results of the first two months of the year are encouraging and should be recognized as such. Costa Rica is showing recovery capacity, strength in key markets, and positive performance in strategic entry nodes such as Liberia. Still, simplistic readings should be avoided. A statistical rebound alone does not resolve the structural challenges facing tourism activity. Important issues remain in areas such as competitiveness, infrastructure, security, connectivity, market diversification, and the destination’s operating conditions. That is precisely why the value of these numbers lies not only in celebrating a positive result, but in understanding what is driving this growth, how sustainable it may be over time, and which risks could limit its consolidation. What Comes Next Will Be Decisive The coming months will be critical in determining whether this performance reflects a firmer consolidation or merely a partial rebound within a still fragile environment. The evolution of international demand, the exchange-rate context, air service availability, and the country’s ability to sustain its value proposition will all be determining factors. For now, the start of 2026 offers a positive sign. But it also leaves a clear task ahead: to read the data seriously, avoid premature triumphalism, and strengthen the conditions needed to turn this rebound into a more stable and sustainable recovery. Source Document Technical Note 04-2026 by the Center for Tourism Studies, prepared using data from ICT and DGME.